Job Market Paper:
"Local Economic Shocks and the Market for Credit"
Abstract: How do local labor market shocks spillover into the commercial banking system? Utilizing a set of continuous difference-in-differences regressions, I identify plausibly exogenous shifts in local deposit supply and asset values generated by the granting of Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) with China. PNTR led to local labor market shocks which disrupted both sides of banks’ balance sheets, especially for banks operating in multiple markets. The banks most exposed to these local labor market disruptions adjusted their credit origination strategies along product and geographic lines. Banks reduced small business lending but increased mortgage originations. This adjustment entailed lending more outside of their home markets and securitizing an increasing amount of loans, most of which were lower quality. This “flight to liquidity” was aided by the presence of an active secondary markets for mortgages and few geographic constraints for mortgage lending.
Works in Progress:
"The Financial and Economic Consequences of the Early Operations of the Second Bank of the United States, 1817 to 1822"
with Peter L Rousseau, PhD
Abstract: Using historical banking records, we examine the impact of the U.S. Treasury’s removal of federal deposits from state-chartered banks from 1817 to 1822, just as the Second Bank of the United States began operations. In 1817 alone, the Second Bank took possession of over $10 million in public deposits as they were moved from state banks to its own newly established branches. A set of regression models indicate that depository banks with larger removals, as well as banks in their counties, had higher probabilities of failure in the period leading up to the Panic of 1819. The number of banks and their capital in counties near depository banks receiving the initial withdrawal orders also grew more slowly than those in other counties. The removals concentrated federal balances in the Philadelphia and Washington, and to a lesser extent other coastal branches of the Second Bank, and banking activity appears to grow more from 1820 to 1822 in areas where the deposits accumulated. It is this more concentrated distribution of banks and banking capital that the Bank’s third and final president, Nicholas Biddle, inherited in 1823 and seemed unable to make much headway in improving.
"Historical GIS Database of Early 19th Century US Postal Routes"
Abstract: The growth of transportation networks has been both the cause and the effect of American economic development, and key to understanding these causal relationships is a knowledge of the state of transportation networks throughout history. In this paper, I present digitized maps of likely postal routes from the early 19th century based on the records produced by Abraham Bradley, Jr. for the US postal service in 1796 and 1804. The files accompanying this paper can be utilized in the geospatial analysis of contemporaneous events using Geographic Information System (GIS) software, as they allow researchers to investigate questions of historic information movement and connectivity using network analysis tools.
Link to GIS Files Link to Draft
"A Theory of Bank Mergers and Investment"
Abstract: I examine how market-to-book ratios (Q) affect strategic firm decisions in the banking industry. I present a model of banking which accounts for the dynamics of risk in deposit and loan markets, where deviations from optimal loan and credit decisions are costly. The model predicts that the market-to-book ratio dictates each bank's optimal deposit and lending levels. Testing these predictions using data from publicly listed banks, I find that deposits, loans, and investment follow an inverted-U shape with respect to Q.
"Securities Markets and Anti-Trust Enforcement: Evidence from Two Merger Waves"
with Lillian Gaeto Trotter, PhD and Peter L. Rousseau, PhD
"The Effects of Bank Concentration and Integration on Local Economic Growth"